Hedge lab
Approval and stock price are two different bets.
Build an exposure
Assumptions, not a quoteStock input seeded from a CBOE delayed snapshot, retrieved 2026-10-29 15:00:44.678172+00:00. Provider time: 2026-10-29 00:59:20 (timezone not supplied). NO prices and future stock paths are assumptions. No hedge is offered or executed.
Same event. Different stock paths.
Hypothetical combined PnL| Outcome | Stock assumption | Stock PnL | NO-claim PnL | Combined PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approval / stock rises | $17.55 | +$4,550 | −$1,200 | +$3,350 |
| No approval / stock falls | $7.15 | −$5,850 | +$2,800 | −$3,050 |
| Approval / stock falls | $9.75 | −$3,250 | −$1,200 | −$4,450 |
| No approval / stock flat | $13.00 | $0 | +$2,800 | +$2,800 |
Approval / stock down exposes basis risk. No approval / stock flat shows a different payoff from an equity put. Fees, carry, taxes, default and execution costs are excluded; figures are dollar PnL, not equal-budget returns.
Options context / NTLA
Delayed historical dataAggregate open interest is across reported standard option series. It is not event-specific volume, executable depth or cash available to VRDCT.
NTLA270416P00012000Expiry 2027-04-16 · $12 put$1.80 / $2.10 bid / ask per share457 contracts open interest10 standard contracts cover 1,000 shares; snapshot ask premium $2,100. This price hedge has a different condition and horizon from an FDA claim.
Event-specific straddle, lognormal and bimodal estimates are unavailable: no dated event-specific options model has been supplied. Aggregate OI cannot be converted into FDA approval probability.
Private programs: a different access gap
Venture investors can diversify or use secondaries, but a program-specific hedge requires reviewed evidence, information controls and independently funded counterparties. Outcome claims give no private equity, royalty or drug IP.
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